Who Will Win Eurovision 2015?

The 60th annual Eurovision Song Contest is underway! The weeklong competition is being held at the Wiener Stadhalle in Vienna, Austria. Hosting duties for the Contest are shared by three women, Mirjam Weichselbraun, Alice Tumler, and Arabella Kiesbauer. The pride of Austria, Conchita Wurst, is hosting from the green room, interviewing the performers. She opened the first semi-final on Tuesday with her winning entry, "Rise Like a Phoenix," which marked the 1,000,000th time she had to sing that song.

I have been at the Contest all week, watching the semi-finals and mingling with press and fans. I can tell you that everyone has an OPINION!!! about who will win tonight.

The Pre-Qualified

Two frontrunners in the competition are Italy and Australia. Both are already qualified for the grand final: Italy, because they are a member of the Big Five (the nations that provide the greatest financial contributions to Eurovision), and Australia, because they are a special guest contestant to celebrate the 60th anniversary of Eurovision. Representing Italy is Il Volo, an operatic pop trio. Their song, "Grande Amore," is ultra-dramatic, and they are polished performers.  This is the best entry Italy has sent in recent years.

Guy Sebastian, representing Australia, is beloved among Australians and Europeans alike. Many viewers will vote for Guy as a sign of good will towards the first-timer nation, and it doesn't hurt that he's a very talented singer with a great song. The running order was finalized on Thursday night, and Australia received a prime placement, near the middle of the competition. Italy, however, is scheduled to go last, which isn't a great spot. Typically, most viewers have already made their decision by that time in the night. But it will be an amazing way to close out the show, and they could sway the audience.

The Dark Horses

Belgium, represented by Loïc Nottet, is an interesting entry that has a lot of buzz surrounding it. First of all, there is nothing like it in the Contest. The song is very current, and the performance has a hip, slick vibe. Loïc's voice is reminiscent of a more masculine Lorde (Boy Lorde = Blorde). Belgium might not be able to catch the attention of older audiences, but it stands out in a great way.

We have two very strong male-female duos in the competition this year, both coming from Baltic countries: Estonia and Lithuania. Both are polished pop songs, but they couldn't be more different. Elina Born and Stig Rästa from Estonia are the moody hipster version of this dynamic; their stage is lit dramatically and the performance tells the moving story of a break-up. Lithuania is all sunshine and flowers and celebration of new love. Vaidas Baumila and Monika Linktye are a real life couple, and they share an onstage kiss during their performance. Their back-up singers also share a same-sex kiss, which has been very well received by Eurovision fans looking to "build bridges" (the theme of this year's Contest) to the gay community. Both Estonia and Lithuania have great pop songs with strong narratives. They were placed a little too early in the Contest to win (4th and 7th, respectively), but anything can happen.

Russia vs. Sweden

For most of the fans, it comes down to two countries: Russia and Sweden. Both nations have an excellent track record at Eurovision. Russia has only one victory at present, which was Dima Bilan in 2008. But they have many top five finishes, and have received second place three times in the past 15 years. As for Sweden, in their 54 years competing in Eurovision, they have failed to qualify for the final only a single time, which was in 2010. Sweden has won five times, most recently, in 2012.

Representing Russia is Polina Gagarina with the song "A Million Voices." She is extremely talented as a singer and a huge star in her native country. People are loving her voice and the positive message of the song (disregarding Russia's politics, and the fact that Eurovision favorite Ukraine is unable to compete this year because of financial problems caused by their ongoing conflict with Russia). Polina received the favorable position of 25th in the running order– generally speaking, the most strategic position is in the last quarter of the final. She has a very good chance, and the Eastern nations will no doubt give Russia their votes. Russia knows how to put on a good show, and this is one of their strongest entries in the past few years.

Sweden's Måns Zelmerlöw (who we all know from my rambling Melodifestivalen coverage) is the other entry that really stands out this year. The staging and choreography is all mostly the same from Måns' Melodifestivalen performance. I have a feeling that the typical Eurovision audience member (you know, normal people who don't watch Swedish music competition shows in their spare time) will be wowed by this song and its presentation. Also, let's not forget that at Melodifestivalen, Måns received extremely high marks from the international jury. He is going 10th, so the main obstacle for Sweden is making sure audiences remember "Heroes" by the time the voting lines are open an hour later.

The Grand Final starts in a few hours. For any Americans who want to watch, go to  http://www.eurovision.tv/. You may need to have Octoshape installed on your computer to watch online. The big show will start at 2pm, Central.

Congrats to Måns Zelmerlöw For Winning Melodifestivalen, Being Hot

We have a winner from Sweden! Congratulations to Måns Zelmerlöw for his crushing victory over the competition. And great job, Sweden, for choosing correctly! This is a song that will do very well at Eurovision in May.

Eurovision Experts Speak Out

I am lucky. I live in Chicago where approximately 0.07% of the population knows what Eurovision is. But I have surrounded myself with a group of friends who not only know what Eurovision is, but care deeply, passionately about it. Every Saturday for the past few weeks, these friends (and a few that live outside of Chicago) gather around a television hooked up to a MacBook to watch a program that is entirely in a language none of us speak.

Chicago winters are cold, long, and bleak. I imagine they are a lot like Swedish winters, except Swedish snow never turns into a black fusion of cigarette butts, PBR cans, and what we hope is dog poop. Melodifestivalen starts up exactly at the time in the season that many of us are contemplating taking a trip to California and never coming back. It gives us hope. It gives us a reason to get out of bed in the morning. Spring is coming.

Last Saturday, which was the Andra Chansen round of Melodifestivalen, it was the first day of the year that temperatures were above freezing. The sun was out, clumps of dirty snow were melting, and every Chicagoan was outside, soaking up the much-needed Vitamin D we have been without for months. Except for five of us. We were inside, eyes glued to the television, watching a program that is entirely in a language none of us speak. That is dedication. Or obsession. I'm not sure which.

So it is with great pleasure that I present the opinions of my friends, a group of Eurovision Superfans, on who should win Melodifestivalen this Saturday, and have the great honor of representing Sweden in Eurovision this year.

So Who Will Win Melodifestivalen?

After five weeks of watching amazing and/or insane Swedish pop music, we now have twelve lucky finalists.

So who will not win? That's easy, so let's get that out of the way. "Groupie" will not win. No, it is just too stupid. Jessica Andersson will not win because she is boring. Linus Svenning will not win because I think voters can see through his "Hey, look at me doing a pop song, you like this, right?" routine. Hasse Andersson will not win because he is old, and though The Olds™ are a strong voting bloc, Hasse is performing last in the show, and they will all be asleep before then. Isa, Dinah Nah, Magnus Carlsson, and JTR are all great, but none of them will win because their songs aren't new and exciting.

So that leaves four performers, and no surprise, they are the four that closed out each week's semi-final: Eric Saade, Mariette Hanson, Jon Henrik Fjällgren, and Måns Zelmerlöw. These four were shown such clear favoritism from the very beginning, getting to close out the night, being allowed extra set dressings, animation sequences, and moving stage pieces.

Eric and Måns have been through this before; each have competed in Melodifestivalen three times, with Eric winning in 2010 and finishing third place overall at Eurovision. The Swedish public love these two. Mariette and Jon Henrik Fjällgren are both newcomers, with a good amount of buzz surrounding them.

Running order, just as in the Eurovision Song Contest, is of utmost importance. Generally, producers save the best for last, and there is a lot of potential voting power in the last quarter of the show. If we leave everything up to the running order, Eric Saade (going 10th) or Mariette (going 11th) are in the strongest position to win. But if there is a movement behind a particular song or a singer's story, such as with Jon Henrik Fjällgren (going 4th), they'll get the votes no matter what. And Måns (going 6th) has been holding the number one position on Swedish iTunes downloads for the past few weeks, which is a good sign for him.

So who will win, and get to represent their country at Eurovision? I don't know. It will be one of those four, and any of them will be a good choice for Vienna.

Since "One By One" and Midnight Boy are no longer in the running (and, I have to face the facts: they never were), I would like to see Måns win because I have been a fan since his 2009 "Hope and Glory" days. "Heroes" is new and different, and it would do well at Eurovision. Plus, he's probably the prettiest man in the world, and that helps.

Melodifestivalen: Heat 4

The last of Melodifestivalen's four heats was broadcast from Örebro on Saturday. We have seen all the contestants at this point, and the line-up for the Andra Chansen (second chance) round is set.

More importantly, there was a sighting of my favorite Swedish back-up dancer, Daniel Koivunen, formerly known as "Anton Ewald's Left Back-Up Dancer." After lots of research (internet stalking), I finally figured out his name, and I have requested to be his friend on Facebook. Fingers crossed he doesn't think it's weird that an American girl with zero connections to Sweden is trying to be his friend!

Anyway, Daniel Koivunen performed this week in two numbers! First, the opening, which featured host, Sanna Nielsen, singing "Free Your Mind" by En Vogue, for a reason I do not understand because I do not speak Swedish. And secondly, in Dinah Nah's entry, "Make Me (La La La)." But back to the competition.

The line-up this week:
1. "Don't Say No," Midnight Boy
2. "Black Swan," Caroline Wennergren
3. "Building It Up," JTR
4. "Guld och gröna skogar," Hasse Andersson
5. "Make Me (La La La)," Dinah Nah
6. "Ett andetag," Annika Herlitz
7. "Heroes," Måns Zelmerlöw