So Who Will Win Melodifestivalen?

After five weeks of watching amazing and/or insane Swedish pop music, we now have twelve lucky finalists.

So who will not win? That's easy, so let's get that out of the way. "Groupie" will not win. No, it is just too stupid. Jessica Andersson will not win because she is boring. Linus Svenning will not win because I think voters can see through his "Hey, look at me doing a pop song, you like this, right?" routine. Hasse Andersson will not win because he is old, and though The Olds™ are a strong voting bloc, Hasse is performing last in the show, and they will all be asleep before then. Isa, Dinah Nah, Magnus Carlsson, and JTR are all great, but none of them will win because their songs aren't new and exciting.

So that leaves four performers, and no surprise, they are the four that closed out each week's semi-final: Eric Saade, Mariette Hanson, Jon Henrik Fjällgren, and Måns Zelmerlöw. These four were shown such clear favoritism from the very beginning, getting to close out the night, being allowed extra set dressings, animation sequences, and moving stage pieces.

Eric and Måns have been through this before; each have competed in Melodifestivalen three times, with Eric winning in 2010 and finishing third place overall at Eurovision. The Swedish public love these two. Mariette and Jon Henrik Fjällgren are both newcomers, with a good amount of buzz surrounding them.

Running order, just as in the Eurovision Song Contest, is of utmost importance. Generally, producers save the best for last, and there is a lot of potential voting power in the last quarter of the show. If we leave everything up to the running order, Eric Saade (going 10th) or Mariette (going 11th) are in the strongest position to win. But if there is a movement behind a particular song or a singer's story, such as with Jon Henrik Fjällgren (going 4th), they'll get the votes no matter what. And Måns (going 6th) has been holding the number one position on Swedish iTunes downloads for the past few weeks, which is a good sign for him.

So who will win, and get to represent their country at Eurovision? I don't know. It will be one of those four, and any of them will be a good choice for Vienna.

Since "One By One" and Midnight Boy are no longer in the running (and, I have to face the facts: they never were), I would like to see Måns win because I have been a fan since his 2009 "Hope and Glory" days. "Heroes" is new and different, and it would do well at Eurovision. Plus, he's probably the prettiest man in the world, and that helps.