Who Will Win Eurovision 2015?

The 60th annual Eurovision Song Contest is underway! The weeklong competition is being held at the Wiener Stadhalle in Vienna, Austria. Hosting duties for the Contest are shared by three women, Mirjam Weichselbraun, Alice Tumler, and Arabella Kiesbauer. The pride of Austria, Conchita Wurst, is hosting from the green room, interviewing the performers. She opened the first semi-final on Tuesday with her winning entry, "Rise Like a Phoenix," which marked the 1,000,000th time she had to sing that song.

I have been at the Contest all week, watching the semi-finals and mingling with press and fans. I can tell you that everyone has an OPINION!!! about who will win tonight.

The Pre-Qualified

Two frontrunners in the competition are Italy and Australia. Both are already qualified for the grand final: Italy, because they are a member of the Big Five (the nations that provide the greatest financial contributions to Eurovision), and Australia, because they are a special guest contestant to celebrate the 60th anniversary of Eurovision. Representing Italy is Il Volo, an operatic pop trio. Their song, "Grande Amore," is ultra-dramatic, and they are polished performers.  This is the best entry Italy has sent in recent years.

Guy Sebastian, representing Australia, is beloved among Australians and Europeans alike. Many viewers will vote for Guy as a sign of good will towards the first-timer nation, and it doesn't hurt that he's a very talented singer with a great song. The running order was finalized on Thursday night, and Australia received a prime placement, near the middle of the competition. Italy, however, is scheduled to go last, which isn't a great spot. Typically, most viewers have already made their decision by that time in the night. But it will be an amazing way to close out the show, and they could sway the audience.

The Dark Horses

Belgium, represented by Loïc Nottet, is an interesting entry that has a lot of buzz surrounding it. First of all, there is nothing like it in the Contest. The song is very current, and the performance has a hip, slick vibe. Loïc's voice is reminiscent of a more masculine Lorde (Boy Lorde = Blorde). Belgium might not be able to catch the attention of older audiences, but it stands out in a great way.

We have two very strong male-female duos in the competition this year, both coming from Baltic countries: Estonia and Lithuania. Both are polished pop songs, but they couldn't be more different. Elina Born and Stig Rästa from Estonia are the moody hipster version of this dynamic; their stage is lit dramatically and the performance tells the moving story of a break-up. Lithuania is all sunshine and flowers and celebration of new love. Vaidas Baumila and Monika Linktye are a real life couple, and they share an onstage kiss during their performance. Their back-up singers also share a same-sex kiss, which has been very well received by Eurovision fans looking to "build bridges" (the theme of this year's Contest) to the gay community. Both Estonia and Lithuania have great pop songs with strong narratives. They were placed a little too early in the Contest to win (4th and 7th, respectively), but anything can happen.

Russia vs. Sweden

For most of the fans, it comes down to two countries: Russia and Sweden. Both nations have an excellent track record at Eurovision. Russia has only one victory at present, which was Dima Bilan in 2008. But they have many top five finishes, and have received second place three times in the past 15 years. As for Sweden, in their 54 years competing in Eurovision, they have failed to qualify for the final only a single time, which was in 2010. Sweden has won five times, most recently, in 2012.

Representing Russia is Polina Gagarina with the song "A Million Voices." She is extremely talented as a singer and a huge star in her native country. People are loving her voice and the positive message of the song (disregarding Russia's politics, and the fact that Eurovision favorite Ukraine is unable to compete this year because of financial problems caused by their ongoing conflict with Russia). Polina received the favorable position of 25th in the running order– generally speaking, the most strategic position is in the last quarter of the final. She has a very good chance, and the Eastern nations will no doubt give Russia their votes. Russia knows how to put on a good show, and this is one of their strongest entries in the past few years.

Sweden's Måns Zelmerlöw (who we all know from my rambling Melodifestivalen coverage) is the other entry that really stands out this year. The staging and choreography is all mostly the same from Måns' Melodifestivalen performance. I have a feeling that the typical Eurovision audience member (you know, normal people who don't watch Swedish music competition shows in their spare time) will be wowed by this song and its presentation. Also, let's not forget that at Melodifestivalen, Måns received extremely high marks from the international jury. He is going 10th, so the main obstacle for Sweden is making sure audiences remember "Heroes" by the time the voting lines are open an hour later.

The Grand Final starts in a few hours. For any Americans who want to watch, go to  http://www.eurovision.tv/. You may need to have Octoshape installed on your computer to watch online. The big show will start at 2pm, Central.